All, and I mean ALL of the various models that outline lineage depend on a series of mathematical models which predict/model genetic change. EVERY SINGLE ONE of these models employ various algorithms which put into practice a common principle....that of "parsimony".

Parsimony basically says that the simplest series of events that result in a measured or observed outcome is the most likely series of events that created that outcome.

What parsimony does is calculate the simplest series of events....a mutation here, followed by that mutation, etc. etc.

But just because it calculates the SIMPLEST PATH to an outcome does not in any way guarantee that is what actually happened.