How will the market change?

[Alan H]

I well remember my sticker shock when, eight years ago, I walked into a Utilikilts booth after seeing Mike McMullen of Tempest, wearing one on stage. At the time I thought..."I don't know about those plaid things, but I could wear a black kilt like Mike's". Then I saw the price. It was my reaction to that price that sent me hunting online to less expensive alternatives, and that, actually is when I joined X Marks.

$175 is not an unreasonable price for the work that goes into making a "production" contemporary kilt, made in the USA. But as we've all noted a million times, until the price gets down to something vaguely comparable to a pair of casual pants, a whole, whole lot of guys will never buy one. To do that, the economies of scale come into play. The company has to buy hundreds to thousands of bolts of material from China and have it sewn up by the tens of thousands in a third world country, for the end product to land on a shelf in the USA at $50.

Marketing studies and clothing trends have to prove to a potential company that they can make money on this. Who are the possible companies? Dickies...Carhart... Columbia...Patagonia... North Face....companies like that. It's been 7-8 years and nobody has made the move. At this point, I don't think that any company WILL make the move.

Chicken and egg, eh?

I looked into buying a couple of bolts of cloth from China and having kilts made in El Salvador a few years ago. Upshot was, with the scale of *hundreds* of units that I might have done, not *tens of thousands* I couldn't significantly beat UK's prices. I was pretty thorough in my research, too. I'm not Patagonia,and neither is Utilikilt. So.... Here's my guess.

We will never see the $50 contemporary kilt..... At least not in the next 10 years.

I used to think that McElmurrys idea, that DIY was such a tiny drop it the bucket that it had no effect. I'm slowly changing my mind. The other day I did a google search on "X-Kilt" (I've done this before) and I'm astounded at how many sites have links to the manual. I'm starting to think that the number of X Kilts made by people NOT on X Marks significantly outnumbers the ones from X Marks. The last time I added it up, about 3+ years ago, over 200 X Kilts had been made by X Markers. That number is probably up to 350 or more, now. I'm guessing that triple that number have been made by people who never visited X Marks for any reason but to find the link. That's 1,000+ kilts.

Whoah. Believe me, when I wrote the manual I had NO idea this was going to happen. Also, that's just X Kilts. How about the umpty-ump other, non-X-kilt DIY kilts that have been made?

But here's the thing....even with the X kilt, that's more or less, vaguely 1,000+ kilts that Utilikilt didn't sell in the past 5 years. That's no joke. So in fact I think that maybe McElmurry might be right, that the DIY market for kilts has impacted the overall market, because the overall market is so small. You can be flippin' sure that the overwhelming majority of the people who made kilts would never in a million years attempt to make a pair of pants.

[Alan H]

Another thought....

I suspect that the number of "new" kilt wearers for the contemporary product is going to seriously shrink. That means that most customers will be repeat customers. The days of some guy finding a booth at a street fair, dropping his trousers and walking out with a Utilikilt.....which then will hang in his closet until next year when he goes to the same street fair.....is fading fast. The novelty is wearing off, the "fashion buzz" is over and the flippin' things cost a lot. As we've already seen, there aren't a whole lot of significantly less expensive alternatives, outside the "tartan" market....and a lot of guys won't wear "tartan".

Two things will happen....

1.)those people who really love kilts will discover that paying more for a custom job from R Kilts or Freedom Kilts is totally worth the money, and will go that way.

2.) Utilikilts are pretty well made-products. They don't fall apart. That's one reason why they cost so much. But that also means that an awful lot of their customers don't buy more than one or two. I suspect that the OVERWHELMING majority of UK owners are once-a-year-at-the-fair wearers, and the rest of the time, they stay in the closet. So in addition to sales to "new" customers, sales to "repeat" customers, to replace worn-out kilts will be minimal.

And that leaves them in a bind. If you make a quality product, people like it and are happy with it and they don't buy another one. This is why Microsoft introduces a new Operating System every four years. They NEED you to buy it, to stay in business.

[Tobus]

We will never see the $50 contemporary kilt..... At least not in the next 10 years.

Oh no?

[James Hood]

Fascinating thread, thank you for your contributions.

In this observation, the last truly enormous "clothing revolution" was when blue cotton denim farm-ranch trousers went from hipster-punk (James Dean and Marlon Brando in 1955) to Hippie (with bell bottoms in 1969) to today's nauseatingly boring omnipresent unisex world-wear.

Do kilts "have what it takes" to make even a tiny fraction of that progression? Again in this opinion, they are seen by the vast lowing hordes as (tartan) ethnic-Scottish and pipe band and at very best, rare (modern, not prolific) "rebellious youth" garb.

Some places, such as Chicago are hideously-dreadfullydespicably traditional in clothing. Given the millions upon millions upon millions huge population of this vast megopolis, one might expect to see...and be disappointed by not...more diversity in dress.

[Alan H]

Oh no?

Whoah!!! double whoah....

When did THAT model hit? That's GOT to be made offshore.

That kilt, right there is a total Game-changer.

[Tobus]

In this observation, the last truly enormous "clothing revolution" was when blue cotton denim farm-ranch trousers went from hipster-punk (James Dean and Marlon Brando in 1955) to Hippie (with bell bottoms in 1969) to today's nauseatingly boring omnipresent unisex world-wear.

Do kilts "have what it takes" to make even a tiny fraction of that progression? Again in this opinion, they are seen by the vast lowing hordes as (tartan) ethnic-Scottish and pipe band and at very best, rare (modern, not prolific) "rebellious youth" garb.

The very thing you describe with "nauseatingly boring omnipresent unisex world-wear" is one of the reasons that I actually wouldn't want the kilt to go mainstream. I like that the kilt is a special thing, with a small minority of enthusiasts. Traditional kilts have a unique culture and history, and modern kilts have a sort of 'underground' culture attached to them. I don't think I'd be at all excited about wearing it if it became as ubiquitous as today's blue jeans. And too, I'm sure the modern urban fashionistas would tweak it into something very effeminate and unattractive like they've done with modern blue jeans. I'd rather leave well enough alone and keep contemporary kilts in the 'rugged outdoor wear' style!

Whoah!!! double whoah....

When did THAT model hit? That's GOT to be made offshore.

That kilt, right there is a total Game-changer.

From what I've read, I'm pretty sure they're made in Pakistan.

But yeah, that's going to be the natural evolution of contemporary cargo-style kilts if they are ever going to start to approach the same price point as a pair of cargo pants or cargo shorts. Virtually all of the major labels in trousers and shorts have their goods made in Asia. And the general public will never see contemporary kilts as a viable option if their price remains north of $75 or even $50. It will always be a specialty-market item unless it can compete on price with its equivalent in trousers or shorts. So UTKilts is probably on the leading edge in that respect.

I've read from some members who bought UTKilts that the quality isn't the best, and that they can start to fall apart after a few washings. But that's not really any different than most other consumer textile goods that are mass-produced in Asia, either. The consumer market doesn't seem overly concerned with quality any more. Just price. So if contemporary kilts are going to go mainstream like other articles of clothing, they'll have to go down that same road of mediocre quality in order to get the price low enough to be comparable. So again, UTKilts is probably the leader on that particular step of the evolution.

[creagdhubh]

The very thing you describe with "nauseatingly boring omnipresent unisex world-wear" is one of the reasons that I actually wouldn't want the kilt to go mainstream. I like that the kilt is a special thing, with a small minority of enthusiasts. Traditional kilts have a unique culture and history, and modern kilts have a sort of 'underground' culture attached to them. I don't think I'd be at all excited about wearing it if it became as ubiquitous as today's blue jeans. And too, I'm sure the modern urban fashionistas would tweak it into something very effeminate and unattractive like they've done with modern blue jeans. I'd rather leave well enough alone and keep contemporary kilts in the 'rugged outdoor wear' style!

Well said, Tobus.

[Whidbey78]

The very thing you describe with "nauseatingly boring omnipresent unisex world-wear" is one of the reasons that I actually wouldn't want the kilt to go mainstream. I like that the kilt is a special thing, with a small minority of enthusiasts. Traditional kilts have a unique culture and history, and modern kilts have a sort of 'underground' culture attached to them. I don't think I'd be at all excited about wearing it if it became as ubiquitous as today's blue jeans. And too, I'm sure the modern urban fashionistas would tweak it into something very effeminate and unattractive like they've done with modern blue jeans. I'd rather leave well enough alone and keep contemporary kilts in the 'rugged outdoor wear' style!

I agree on this. I don't wear a kilt (tartan, camo, or other) to be different, but because I like to. The fact that it isn't that common adds to the appeal. There is another current thread about kilt length, which can be found here, that shows a pic of five men walking toward the camera in "kilts" of various styles. The man on the left is decked out rather nicely (though too matchy-matchy), as is the guy in the center, but two of the other three look as if they raided their mothers' closets. The one in the leather jacket, second from left, looks less like a kilt and more like a jacket is tied around his waist. That's what I fear if the kilt were to grow into a mainstream garment. We've all seen the various kilt-inspired garments that have been posted here, mostly for a quick laugh. Fortunately, the stuff they put on the fashion runways, like concept cars, almost never go into production, though elements of these creations sometimes do.

A little more growth in the market is fine. I really hope it happens since competition leads to innovation, and often, better products more suited to the customer. Mass-customization is a good thing in most markets, and the kilt market is no exception (except in Utilikilts case it seems). Acceptance of the kilt has grown, and that may be more important in the long run than the number of people actually wearing it. That's getting into social concerns and is outside the scope of this thread, so I'll just stop there.

From what I've read, I'm pretty sure they're made in Pakistan.

But yeah, that's going to be the natural evolution of contemporary cargo-style kilts if they are ever going to start to approach the same price point as a pair of cargo pants or cargo shorts. Virtually all of the major labels in trousers and shorts have their goods made in Asia. And the general public will never see contemporary kilts as a viable option if their price remains north of $75 or even $50. It will always be a specialty-market item unless it can compete on price with its equivalent in trousers or shorts. So UTKilts is probably on the leading edge in that respect.

I've read from some members who bought UTKilts that the quality isn't the best, and that they can start to fall apart after a few washings. But that's not really any different than most other consumer textile goods that are mass-produced in Asia, either. The consumer market doesn't seem overly concerned with quality any more. Just price. So if contemporary kilts are going to go mainstream like other articles of clothing, they'll have to go down that same road of mediocre quality in order to get the price low enough to be comparable. So again, UTKilts is probably the leader on that particular step of the evolution.

I agree that these kilts can't compete in the mainstream at Utilikilts prices, or even half their price. The only option is overseas manufacturing and cheaper materials to reduce costs and stay in the price range of a pair of Dockers. Even if they managed to get the selling price to <$30, it still would not become a viable alternative to jeans or casual pants for a very large portion of the public, and for varied reasons. Setting aside personal preferences, social acceptance, etc, the fact remains that at $75 one generally isn't getting a very good kilt, even less so at $50. If most customers can buy a $20-30 pair of jeans or shorts at Walmart and get a lot of use from them, why would they spend two to three times that for something that falls apart after going through the wash a few times? With a down economy people are gravitating toward the polar ends of the spectrum--buying what they can afford easily or buying the absolute best they can get their hands on. That leaves Wally World jeans as the more logical option, and if the desire is really there for a modern kilt, saving up for one good one that will last. Unless they can get the quality to be competitive with RK, UK, etc, and keep the price <$50-75, there's just no way they can grab more of the mainstream market.

As one of the many DIYers here, I've been tempted to buy UT's base model and add a few bar-tacks and/or rivets to beef them up in the areas that people are talking about them coming apart. At $50 it's still nearly twice what I usually pay for materials to make one, but could be a viable option once it's weaknesses have been addressed, which would likely take little time compared to making something comparable myself. I'm fine with buying something for a tolerable price and having to do a little work on it, but the majority of the public is the opposite and wants something affordable, fairly well made, that will fit their needs or wants out of the box. That simply can't be supplied in this price range, and , as Alan has pointed out before, is hard to do at a much higher price as well.

I think the whole market will remain fairly stagnant for a while or will even shrink. The scenario of UK scaling back seems viable as well. The most logical business decision is outsourcing the manufacturing, but I do respect their stance on keeping domestic labor. If they have to scale down their operations in the future it will be much easier with domestic labor. It's often hard to maintain small contracts with overseas manufaturers, so they could be forced to send their manufacturing to contracted individuals (which is often risky), and accept a higher per-unit cost, or rebuild their original operation here, which would be costly and may take a long time to recover from. UK has a good business model, but not great. They are rejecting customization, even on a large scale, in the interest of maintaining a specific operating cost. This may, or may not be, a case of stepping over a dollar to pick up a dime, but it's their business to run.

[Alan H]

In regards to UK not doing customization of individual items, that makes sense if they're trying to go the way of mass production. Nobody asks Levis Strauss to customize a pair of dockers trousers, eh?

Honestly, $75 is too much money to get a "mainstream" kilt out there. Really..... $50 is too much, when I can walk into any of a number of mens clothing departments at chain stores and buy a pair of pants for $35. For $50 you're not getting a "nice" kilt, and there's absolutely no way it's going to be made with first world labor. Everybody agrees on that.

Once upon a time, another industry that started as almost cottage industries, "went global". I remember when North Face and Sierra Designs both started taking part of their production lines offshore. North Face started a sub-line of equipment called "Windy Pass by North Face" and marketed it as their "value" brand. The name only existed for about two years, until North Face management decided that the quality they were getting from their offshore manufacturing plants was up to snuff and then they moved ALL of North Face production (almost) to offshore plants. I was reminded of this when I recently acquired a tent from the Luminous Joans aunt and uncle, who'd bought it 20+ years ago and used it about twice. It had sat in their garage. I hadn't see a "Windy Pass" product in *Years*.

Anyway, I wonder if "UTkilts" is Utilikilts "Windy Pass". It will be interesting to see what they do in the next year to 18 months. If they get outside investors who acquire a major percentage share of the company, you can be pretty sure that the "made in the USA" philosophy will change.
The truth is....as I know from researching the "Earth Kilt" project. That when your volume is only a couple of thousand of units per year, it's actually cheaper to produce the product locally. However, once volume goes way up, it's cheaper to go offshore. You can bet that the "made in the USA" sticker will quietly disappear when that happens, because the truth is that while a lot of people LOVE to scream about domestic goods, the overwhelming majority of people choose one product over another based overwhelmingly on up-front-price.

[Alan H]

I was recently at the Enumclaw Highland Games and I walked into a booth set up for a small-time contemporary kiltmaker. They were nice guys. The product was built very well, they've been reviewed on this forum. I was impressed, in fact the only reason I wouldn't own one is that I don't much like how they shape their over-apron. Aside from that, I think the things are da bomb.

I took their card, and I took a couple of photos.

About 3 weeks later I went down to my local outdoor-backpacking-mil surplus-carhart-dickies store and showed them the pictures and gave them the card. They thanked me, and said "not happening". I asked them why.

ANSWER: They'd have to buy the kilts from the manufacturer. It costs the store money to stock them. If they do that, will they make their money back, with profit, faster than if they were to sell something else? In other words, there are only so many racks of clothing that they can set up in their store. They could put ... for example.... Columbia fleece jackets on a rack. Or... they could put kilts. Which one is likely to make them money within a reasonable time? They KNOW they can make money with Columbia fleece jackets, or carhart work pants. They don't KNOW they can make money with kilts. Why should they take that chance?

I can hardly argue with their logic.